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Too Close To Call – Both Parties in deadlock

October 19, 2019

Campaign Research continues to conduct a national public opinion poll now at 3541 eligible Canadian voters.  We continue to track movements that might provide us with any clues as to how this election might finish.  The national horserace ballot numbers and the overall ballot numbers in British Columbia and Ontario are so close that it is difficult to predict the outcome.

 

Over the last 3 days, on the national level, support for the parties has remain very stable.  See graph below on all eligible voters:

 

 

In Ontario, the LPC (37%) has opened up their lead over the CPC (32%).  This is a critical measurement as the path to victory for the LPC comes through Ontario.  In the 905 though, it still seems that the CPC has a small lead (sample sizes are small). 

 

In British Columbia, the CPC has a slight lead, but it is a 3-way tie between the CPC, LPC and NDP.  Again, more sample over the next 24 hours will help to better understand what is happening as voters finalize their decision(s).

 

In Atlantic Canada, the LPC still have a significant lead but not as large as 2015 election night.

 

In Quebec, the Bloc continues to hold 29%.  The CPC is up to 17%.  The LPC leads at 34%.  The NDP is at 12% while the GPC is at 5%.

 

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the CPC dominates.  In Manitoba, it’s a closer race with the CPC in the lead.

 

 

Battleground Ontario – 121 seats

 

 

The LPC (37%) is now leading in Ontario over the CPC (32%), while the NDP has settled at 18% and the GPC is up to 9%.

 

Outside the City of Toronto, the LPC is now statistically tied for 1st place in all other regions of Ontario.

 

 

“This race still remains too close to call one way or the other.  Both parties are under enormous pressure to execute in the last 3 days,

 especially in BC, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  This election has yet to break in favour of either party”, – said Nick Kouvalis, Principal of Campaign Research Inc.   

 

Nick can be reached at nkouvalis@campaignresearch.ca

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This study was conducted by Campaign Research between October 16th and 19th, 2019 through an online survey of 3541 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.

 

The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

 

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

 

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

 

  

 

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