Voter Segmentation - The Liberals have a problem
- Sep 2, 2021
- 1 min read
September 2nd, 2021
Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll with 3011 Canadians between August 30th, 2021, and September 1st, 2021. Halfway through the 44th federal election campaign, we wanted to see where the various parties stood with eligible voters broken into voter groups or “segments” of voters. This data is a follow-up to our earlier release on September 2nd, 2021.
Where and how is the study conducted?
This study was conducted by Campaign Research between August 30 th and September 1 st , 2021, through an online survey with 3011 Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of less than +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.
The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study "Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"
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Great to see a national poll broken down into voter segments—those cross-tabs can reveal patterns that headline numbers often hide. I also appreciate the transparent description of the sample (3011 Canadians) and how panelists were weighted against age, gender, and region. The next step, though, is connecting each segment to specific policy or messaging drivers, otherwise “where parties stand” remains a snapshot. Still, this is a useful dataset, and tools like 5 Letter Words make it easier to test wording and recall in word-based outreach.
Liberals face voter segmentation issues based on a Campaign Research poll of 3011 Canadians (Aug 30-Sept 1, 2021). The online survey, weighted by demographics, shows fluctuating party support among segments. Margin of error: +/- 2%. Political strategists scrutinize these shifts for effective messaging. Feeling strategic? Try Wordle Unlimited for daily brainy puzzles.
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