Many more Ontarians are considering Doug Ford’s PC Party over Kathleen Wynne’s OLP and Andrea Horwat

Beyond asking respondents which party they would vote for, Campaign Research also asked if they would consider supporting any other political parties ­– this is known as a Voter Gap Analysis. These questions rendered a comprehensive assessment of what the potential floor and ceiling for each political party are. It also accounts for who represent each party’s core group of supporters.

The Voter Gap Analysis showed that the Ontario Liberal Party (“OLP”) face a significant challenge as 65% of respondents claimed they would not consider voting for them. Likewise, 58% of respondents claimed they would not consider voting for the Ontario New Democratic Party (“ONDP”). The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (“PCs”) fared better. Only 49% of respondents suggested they would not consider voting for them.

To add to the OLP’s challenges this election, their core support (Vote/No Others Considered) is at a mere 12%, which is less than half of the PC’s (30%). The ONDP’s core support is similar to the OLP with only 13% of voters completely committed to voting for them. These supporters have decided who they will vote for and would not consider another party.

PCs Voter Gap Analysis

Respondents that would vote for the PCs and not consider another party split evenly between middle-aged and older men and woman. While older males expressed the strongest support of any other demographic group with 43%, 34% of older females are also exclusively committed to voting PC. Support among older demographics is very important, as they tend to be more reliable voters.

OLP Voter Gap Analysis

The OLP’s core voters, chiefly, among younger men and woman, favoured the OLP with nearly half willing to vote for them. This trend is different among older voters. For instance, 76% of men over 55 years old and 72% of woman over 55 years of age were unwilling to vote for the OLP.

NDP Voter Gap Analysis

Both younger men and woman were likely to vote for the ONDP with more than half willing to consider the ONDP. Devout ONDP supporters were relatively, evenly distributed across all demographic groups. The oldest males and females have the most polarized opinions of the ONDP with nearly two-thirds of males (66%) and females (64%) over the age of 55 unwilling to consider voting for them.

“Since Doug Ford’s election as leader of the PCs, the prevalent narrative has been that Doug Ford is immensely unpopular and polarizing. This Voter Gap Analysis, clearly illustrates that Doug Ford and the PCs have considerably greater appeal among Ontarians than either of the other two main political parties.” – Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 x 109

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between March 12 to 14 2018, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 1,637 Ontario voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Ontario’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.

A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by age, gender and region in the Province of Ontario according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"