Conservatives and Liberals battling for lead in run up to election
Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll of 2,365 Canadians on their views of the upcoming federal election. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) rose to a nominal lead of 1% over the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), as the two parties jockeyed for the lead in the run up to the federal election scheduled for October 2019. The Green Party and NDP continued to battle for 3rd with 13% and 12%, respectively.
In Ontario two months ago, the CPC led the LPC narrowly (36% to 34%), last month (July) had the Liberal’s ahead with a sizable lead of 7% (31% to 38%). In August, Campaign Research found that the LPC lead shrunk to 4%, with the CPC at 33% and the LPC at 37%.
Campaign Research also asked Canadians if they would consider voting for the “other” political parties – this allows us to perform a Voter Gap Analysis. These questions rendered a more comprehensive analysis of what the potential “floors” and “ceilings” are for each political party. It also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters.
The CPC and the LPC had similar “vote ceilings” at 39% and 40% respectively. The GPC and NDP also have virtually the same ceiling at 31% each. Given that the GPC only received 3.5% of the popular vote in 2015 federal election, this represents a massive opportunity for them to grow.
It is important to note that the CPC had 21% of their voters as “hard supporters”. These voters are voting for the CPC and not considering any other party, while the LPC had only 14% of their voters as “hard supporters”, that are voting LPC and not considering any other party. This indicates that the CPC has a higher support floor than the LPC heading into the federal election.
33% of Canadians approved of the job that Justin Trudeau was doing as prime minister. Andrew Scheer’s job approval is up 3% from July to 29%. Elizabeth May continued to be the most popular leader at 37%, while Jagmeet Singh continued to struggle at 23%.
The Prime Minister’s “job disapproval” remains at 53%, with a net “job approval” rating of -20. Andrew Scheer’s “job disapproval” remains at 43%, with a net “job approval” rating of -14. Elizabeth May was the only federal leader to enjoy a positive net approval rating (+18%).
Justin Trudeau continues to lead Andrew Scheer on the question of “Who would make the best Prime Minister” receiving 26% to Scheer’s 22%. Even so, the two leaders were much closer than they were a year ago. While Elizabeth May led Jagmeet Singh by a small margin of 2%.
“It is important to remember that aside from the immediate aftermath of SNC-Lavalin scandal, the CPC and LPC have remained in a dead heat over the last year. However, the CPC has continued to hold significant advantage over the LPC when it comes to “vote hardness” that is those voters who will only consider voting for one party. The LPC will need to improve the “hardness” of their supporters if they hope to match CPC committed voters who will turnout to vote in higher numbers.”
– said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 x 109
METHODOLOGY
This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between August 9 to 13 2019 through an online survey of 2,365 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20.
The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study "Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"
