Tied Overall, Tied in Ontario
Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll of 2,094 Canadians on their views of the upcoming federal election. This poll was conducted between September the 3rd and September the 5th, 2019. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) both have the support of roughly 1/3rd of the population, just before the writ is dropped to start this federal election campaign. The Green Party and NDP continue to battle for 3rd with 12% each.
There has been significant movement in the province of Ontario over the last 3 months. In July, the Liberal’s were ahead with a sizable lead of 7% (31% to 38%) in the province of Ontario. In August, the Liberal lead had shrunk to 4% (33% to 37%). Since the last Campaign Research Study, the Ethics Commissioner has released their scathing report on Justin Trudeau and today the LPC and CPC are tied at 36% each (Ontario).
Campaign Research also asked Canadians if they would consider supporting the “other” political parties – this allows us to perform a Voter Gap Analysis. These questions rendered a more comprehensive analysis of what the potential “floors” and “ceilings” are for each political party. It also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters.
The CPC has a “vote ceiling” at 39% and the LPC have a slightly higher ceiling at 42%. 31% of Canadians say that they would consider voting for the GPC, which is significant and suggest that the GPC can still grow beyond their current 12% ballot support. Meanwhile the NDP vote ceiling has fallen to 29% and this metric points to a significant problem the NDP has.
It is important to note that the CPC had 20% of their voters as “hard supporters”. These voters are voting for the CPC and not considering any other party, while the LPC had only 14% of their voters as “hard supporters”, that are voting LPC and not considering any other party. This indicates that the CPC will have a higher turnout of their supporters relative to the LPC, if the election were held today.
32% of Canadians approved of the job that Justin Trudeau was doing as prime minister (and this is very close to the 34% support that the LPC has nationally). Andrew Scheer’s job approval is up to 30% this month, still 4% below his party overall ballot support number. Elizabeth May continued to be the most popular leader at 38%, while Jagmeet Singh continues to struggle at 22%.
The Prime Minister’s “job disapproval” has gone up to 55% from 53% in August, with a net “job approval” rating of -23%. Andrew Scheer’s “job disapproval” is also up to 45%, up from 43% in August, with a net “job approval” rating of -15. Elizabeth May was the only federal leader to enjoy a positive net job approval rating (+17%). Jagmeet Singh had a newt job approval rating of -13%.
Justin Trudeau continues to lead Andrew Scheer on the question of “Who would make the best Prime Minister” receiving 26% to Scheer’s 23%. Even so, the two leaders were much closer than they were a year ago. While Elizabeth May led Jagmeet Singh by a small margin of 1%.
“The really big news coming out of this study is that the CPC and LPC are dead-even in Ontario just as the election campaign begins. With Doug Ford’s PC government making significant changes (Cabinet, extending summer recess and policy changes that are being received well by municipalities) combined with the Ethics Commissioner’s scathing report on Prime Minister Trudeau in August, the CPC has closed the 8% gap they faced in May. The CPC has a significant advantage over the LPC when it comes to “vote hardness” and those voters who will only consider voting for one party. More LPC voters are considering voting for another party and nearly 1/3rd of Canadians are willing to consider voting for the Green Party of Canada, said Nick Kouvalis, Principal at Campaign Research Inc. Nick can be reached at 519-791-9663.
This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between Sept 3rd to 5th, 2019 through an online survey of 2,094 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.14%, 19 times out of 20.
The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study
"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"