Conservatives maintain their lead

Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll of 1,471 Canadians in the beginning of May 2019. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) continues to lead the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) with the New Democratic Party (NDP) trailing far behind. These ballot numbers have remained quite consistent over the last 6 months.

The CPC saw an increase in support in British Columbia vs. April (38% vs 27%) and also made gains in Alberta, the Prairies and Quebec. In contrast, the CPCs saw a decline in support in Ontario (33% vs 37%) and Atlantic Canada (35% vs 43%).

Justin Trudeau’s net job approval rating appears to have stabilized and saw an increase of 4% from -29% to -25%. Andrew Scheer’s net job approval rating also saw an increase of 5% going from -6% to -1%. As with the other two leaders, Jagmeet Singh’s net approval rating also increased from -7% to -3%.

As with their net approval ratings, Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer, showed small changes on the question of “Who would make the best Prime Minister” with Trudeau leading Scheer by 1%. The improvement in Singh’s net approval rating has not been reflected in the proportion that consider him as the best candidate for Prime Minister, seeing a marginal 1% increase.

"While the Conservatives continue to hold a lead over the Liberals, this coming election remains far too close to call at this time. Though the SNC-Lavalin affair has taken a toll on the Prime Minister’s job approval numbers, it has not had a significant impact on the Liberal Party ballot numbers. The Liberals have been trailing the Conservative by 2% to 6% nationally for over 5 months" - said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 x 109

METHODOLOGY

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research between April 30 to May 1 through an online survey of 1,471 randomly selected Canadian adults who were members of an online panel and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"