Deadlock continues as the Green Party closes in on the NDP

Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll of 2,735 Canadians on their views of the upcoming federal election. The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) continued to hold a small lead (3%) over the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), although this gap has narrowed since the start of this year. More significantly the Green Party of Canada (GPC) and New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP) are now in a statistical tie as the Greens have gained support at the expense of the NDP.

The CPC held a small lead over the Liberal’s in Ontario (36% to 34%) and were deadlocked with them in BC (32% and 32%). The CPC continued to hold a strong lead in the Prairies (46%) and Alberta (61%), while the Liberal’s led in Atlantic Canada (43%) and Quebec (35%). Interestingly the GPC has overtaken the NDP in Atlantic Canada (14% to 10%) and Quebec (14% to 8%), while both parties remain competitive in BC, with each holding 17%.

Campaign Research also asked Canadians if they would consider supporting the “other” political parties – this allows us to perform a Voter Gap Analysis. These questions rendered a more comprehensive analysis of what the potential “floors” and “ceilings” are for each political party. It also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” supporters.

The results found that the LPC and CPC have virtually the same “ceiling” at 40% and 41% respectively. It should be noted that the Liberals’ maximum possible vote share today is the same as their share of the popular vote in the last election (39.5%), while the Conservative’s have more room to grow relative to their performance in the 2015 election (32%). The GPC and NDP also have virtually the same ceiling at 32% and 33% respectively. Given that the GPC only received 3.5% of the popular vote in 2015 federal election this represents a huge opportunity for them to grow.

It is also important to note that the CPC have 25% voters as their hard supporters, that is voting for the CPC and not considering any other party, the LPC has only 17% of voters as hard supporters, that is voting LPC and not considering any other party. The “hard supporters” (dark blue) also turn out in higher numbers because they are more motivated to vote than other group(s), giving the CPC a significant advantage in the upcoming election.

Justin Trudeau’s “job approval” rating has recovered slightly in the aftermath of the SNC-Lavalin Affair with 32% of Canadian’s approving of the job he is doing compared to a low of 29% in April. Even so, Trudeau’s approval rating is far below where it was this time last year (41%). Andrew Scheer remained stuck in the 28%-32% range that he has been in since September. While it seems that SNC Lavalin has greatly harmed his rival’s popularity, it has done little to bolster his own. Interestingly the most popular federal Leader was Elizabeth May, with over a third of Canadian’s expressing approval of her.

The Prime Minister’s “job disapproval” continued its slow decline down to 54% compared to a high of 58% in April , while this shows that a clear majority of Canadians still disapprove of his performance, it does seem that SNC Lavalin is slowly fading into the past. Andrew Scheer saw a much larger change with his disapproval rating increasing by 6%, primarily driven by Ontario (41%) and BC (40%). Elizabeth May was the only federal leader to enjoy a positive net approval rating (14%).

Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer remained tied on the question of “Who would make the best Prime Minister” with both leaders receiving 24%. This small difference is yet another indication of just how close the two parties are to one another heading into this year’s federal election. While Elizabeth May led Jagmeet Singh by a small margin of 2%.

“While the CPC and LPC remain close in terms of their vote share and in the public’s choice of best PM, the rise of the Green Party is something to keep an eye on. With Elizabeth May being the only leader to have a positive net approval rating and her party closing in on the NDP, it will be interesting to see if the Green’s can replicate the success achieved by their sister parties in last months European Union Elections and in PEI.” – said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 x 109

METHODOLOGY

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between June to 4 to 6 2019 through an online survey of 2,735 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"