CPC has significant advantages heading into final 2 weeks
Campaign Research has conducted the largest national public opinion poll in the 43rd General Election (n=4,755). Since the national “horserace” numbers have remained so close between the CPC and LPC so over a year, we decided to collect a much larger sample so that we could take a closer look at how all the parties were performing in the various regions across Canada.
Compared to our last national poll taken between September the 3rd and 5th, 2019, the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) remains at 34% while the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) has slipped 2% and is now at 32%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) inched up to 14% (up from 11%) while the Green Party is at 11% (down from 12%).
In Atlantic Canada, there has been no change since our last poll in early September. The LPC is not as high as they were in 2015 and the CPC is performing better than their 2015 result.
In Ontario the CPC and LPC are deadlocked at 36% each with the NDP, GPC and PPC taking between 25%-30% of the vote.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (BQ) is at 21%, slightly higher than 2015 (19.3%). The CPC is at 20%, higher than 2015 (16.7%). The LPC is at 34%, slightly lower than 2015 (35.7%). The NDP is at 12%, drastically lower than 2015 (25.4%), while the GPC is up to 11% much higher than 2015 (2.3%).
In British Columbia the CPC and LPC are deadlocked while all 4 parties currently sit between 19% to 30%. Anything can still happen in BC over the next 17 days, including the NDP and/ or GPC coming in 1st or 2nd place in BC.
In the battleground of Ontario, both the CPC and LPC remain deadlocked at 36% each while the NDP was at 16% and the GPC was at 8%. The PPC was at 3% and “Another Party” was at 1%. The CPC and LPC were also both at 36% in Ontario in our poll in early September. Since the campaign has begun, the only time that this deadlock was broken was in the immediate aftermath of the Brownface/ Blackface episode(s), where the CPC went up to 38% - 39% for 2 or 3 days and then fell back down.
Outside the City of Toronto and outside the Eastern Region (Eastern Region does not include the City of Ottawa), the race between the CPC and the LPC is extremely close. In Northern Ontario, the Hamilton-Niagara Region and the Halton-Peel Region we see a statistical tie between the CPC and the LPC (*very small sample sizes). The LPC seems to have an advantage in the City of Ottawa (*small sample) while the CPC seems to have an advantage in the York-Simcoe-Durham Regions and in Southwestern Ontario Region.
The LPC has an oversized lead in the City of Toronto, but there are only 25 seats in the City of Toronto and the LPC can only win those seats once (if the NDP doesn’t take 1-3 of the “downtown” ridings, such as: Parkdale High Park, Davenport & Danforth). The same rule applies to the CPC in the Eastern Ontario Region.
In Quebec, the LPC totally dominate in the Montreal Region, the CPC have a solid lead in the Quebec City Region and the Bloc Quebecois have a small but significant lead in the “rest of Quebec”. The NDP does not seem to have enough support to be able to win anywhere near the amount of ridings that they did in 2015, at least not at this point in the campaign. It is possible that the NDP will be wiped out of Quebec. Again, we see no significant changes since our poll in early September.
In addition to asking Canadians which party they planned to vote for, we also asked Canadians if they would or are considering supporting any of the “other” political parties. This allows us to perform a Voter Gap Analysis.
Specifically, this allows for an analysis of the potential “floors” and “ceilings” for each party. This analysis also allows us to look closer at each party’s “hard” and “soft” Supporters. This gives us more insight into which party may have a “voter turnout” advantage.
In Ontario, 39% of all voters would consider voting for the CPC whereas 44% of all voters would consider voting for the LPC. The NDP and GPC have the nearly the same number of voters that would consider voting for them, 34% and 31% respectively. 89% of voters would not consider voting for the PPC.
It is important to note that the CPC had 21% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 10% of all voters as “soft” Supporters. “Hard” Supporters (dark blue band) are voters that are voting for one party and are not considering voting for any other party. The LPC only had 15% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 16% of all voters as “soft” Supporters. “Soft” Supporters (light blue band) are voters who have indicated that they will vote for a specific party but also would consider at least one other party.
This analysis represented in the Bar Chart clearly indicates that the CPC has more committed voters than the LPC. This is a strong indicator of a higher turnout for the CPC relative to the LPC, if the election were held today.
In BC, only 34% of voters would consider voting CPC. 38% would consider voting LPC. The NDP and the GPC have the same vote ceiling with 37% of voters who would consider voting for them. Any of the 4 parties could win in BC.
It is important to note the CPC had 18% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 7% as “soft” Supporters. The LPC had only 13% of all voters as “hard” Supporters and 14% as “soft” Supporters. This indicates that the CPC could have a higher turnout.
“This is a very large sample and it gives us a lot of confidence when trying to get a better read on the regional battles. This study confirms that since early September and up to today, despite there being an election campaign that seems as if it has been ongoing for more than 3 months now, there have been no significant changes in “top line” support for any of the parties. But there’s a big battle in BC between all 4 parties and there’s a very important battle going on in most parts of Ontario
As of today, when considering each party’s base of support, the CPC has a distinct advantage over the LPC when it comes to “hard” Supporters (committed Voters). The LPC will either need to convert more of their “soft” Supporters into “hard” Supporters or the LPC will need to convince existing NDP and/or GPC Voters to switch to the LPC.– said Nick Kouvalis, Principal of Campaign Research Inc.
Nick can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
This study was conducted by Campaign Research between September 30th and October the 2nd, 2019 through an online survey of 4,755 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 1.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study
"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"