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Jagmeet Singh’s and Elizabeth May’s rising approval ratings with Canadians are keeping the Trudeau Liberals from achieving a majority government

October 4, 2019

Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll of 4,755 Canadians.  We wanted to take a closer look into seat-rich regions to see if Singh & May’s rising approval ratings could be enough to hold the LPC from attaining a majority government.

 

With respect to “job approval”, 31% of Canadians approved of the job that Trudeau was doing. Trudeau has seen his “job approval” rating continue to drop month over month for the last 3 months.  Scheer’s job approval is at 29% and flat over the same period.  May has continued to increase her approval rating to 39%.  Singh has seen a sharp increase (+11%), over the last 3 weeks in his job approval score since early September and is now up to an impressive 33%.

 

Trudeau’s “job disapproval” rating is at 54%, and his net “job approval” rating is now -23%, no change from early September.  Scheer’s “job disapproval” has risen to 47%, and his net “job approval” rating is now -18%, down 3% from early September.  May’s “job disapproval” has risen to 25%, and her net “job approval” rating is now +14%, down 3% from early September.  Singh’s “job disapproval” has dropped to 29%, and his net “job approval” rating is now +4, up from -13% (a net gain of 17% from early September).  This is great news for Singh and the NDP heading into the last 2 weeks of the campaign.

 

 

When you look closer at the age categories and regional breakouts, Singh has a higher approval rating with younger voters (which doesn’t help if younger voters don’t turnout in high numbers relative to older voters) but Singh does very well in Ontario and BC, both battleground where the LPC needs to strengthen their vote:

 

 

When you look closer at the age categories and regional breakouts, May has high approval ratings across the board amongst all ages and May does very well in Ontario, BC and Atlantic Canada, all battleground regions where the LPC needs to strengthen their vote to be able to defeat the CPC:

 

“The LPC needs to convince current NDP and/or GPC voters to switch to the LPC to be able to get to a majority government position.  So far, this is proving to be very difficult as both May and Singh continue to increase their job approval numbers, especially in key seat-rich regions.  Additionally, if Jagmeet Singh continues to increase his approval rating and decrease his disapproval rating, then with 2 weeks to go, on election night, in Ontario and BC election things could be devastating for the LPC” – said Nick Kouvalis, Principal of Campaign Research Inc.

 

Nick can be reached at nkouvalis@campaignresearch.ca

 

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This study was conducted by Campaign Research between September 30th and October the 2nd, 2019 through an online survey of 4,755 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 1.4%, 19 times out of 20.

 

The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

 

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

 

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

 

 

 

 

 

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