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Final stretch – CPC and LPC are dead even. Either party headed for a plurality of seats but no majority

October 18, 2019

Campaign Research has conducted a national public opinion poll with 1987 eligible Canadian voters.  In the last days of the election campaign we want to track movements that might provide us with any clues as to how this election might finish because the national horserace ballot numbers and the overall ballot numbers in British Columbia and Ontario are so close.

 

There is no significant change from our last poll on October 12th and the election is still too close to call as of Friday at 1230pm EST. Hopefully, over the course of the weekend we will be able to help identify where last-minute voting decisions will end up.

 

The CPC and LPC are dead even at 31%.  The NDP has dropped to 18%.  The GPC is at 9%.  The PPC is at 3% and the Bloc is at 7%.

 

 

In Ontario, the LPC (36%) has opened up a small lead over the CPC (32%).  This is a critical measurement as the path to victory for the LPC comes through Ontario.  In the 905 though, it still seems that the CPC has a small lead (sample sizes are small).  We are looking forward to larger sample in the 905 over the next 2 days to help us to confirm this.

 

In British Columbia, the CPC has a slight lead, but it is a 3-way tie between the CPC, LPC and NDP.  Again, more sample over the next 48 hours will help to better understand what is happening as voters finalize their decision(s).

 

In Atlantic Canada, the LPC have a significant lead but not as large as 2015 election night.

 

In Quebec, the Bloc continues to hold 29%.  The CPC is at 16%.  The LPC leads at 33%.  The NDP is at 13% while the GPC is at 6%.

 

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, the CPC dominates.  In Manitoba, it’s a closer race with the CPC in the lead.

 

 

Battleground Ontario – 121 seats

 

The LPC (36%) is now leading in Ontario over the CPC (32%), while the NDP has settled at 18% and the GPC is up to 9%.

 

Outside the City of Toronto, the race between the CPC and the LPC is extremely close.  In the Hamilton-Niagara Region we see a 3-way race between the CPC, LPC and NDP.  In Northern Ontario the LPC and the NDP are neck and neck. The City of Ottawa leans to the LPC and Eastern Region (not including the City of Ottawa), leans to the CPC.  The CPC seems to have an advantage in the 905 West Regions and the 905 East Regions, while the LPC seems to have a lead in Southwestern Ontario.

 

“This race is too close to call one way or the other at this point.  Both parties are under enormous pressure to execute in the last 3 days, in BC, in Ontario, in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.  This election has yet to break in favour of either party”, – said Nick Kouvalis, Principal of Campaign Research Inc.   

 

Nick can be reached at nkouvalis@campaignresearch.ca

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This study was conducted by Campaign Research between October 16th and 18th, 2019 through an online survey of 1987 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

 

The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

 

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

 

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

 

 

 

 

 

 

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