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Conservative Party has a clear lead over the Liberal Party just 8 months out from the election

February 15, 2019

The latest National Campaign Research Poll conducted among 1,590 Canadians revealed that the Conservatives (CPC) held a clear lead (37%) over the Liberals (LPC, 32%), while the New Democratic Party of Canada’s (NDP) fortunes continue their decline with the party remaining a distant third (14%). Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada doesn’t appear to be having a noticeable impact on the CPC.

 

The CPC increased their vote share at the expense of the LPC and NDP in most of Canada. In seat rich Ontario the CPC (40%) now hold a strong lead of 7% over the Liberals (33%), similarly the CPC greatly increased their vote share in their traditional strongholds of the Prairies and especially Alberta, where they now hold two thirds of the decided vote (65%).

 

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois made a significant gain of +4% since December 2018. The CPC made a gain of +3% since December 2018 (24%) but still trail the LPC (36%). BC also saw some changes with the CPC (-2%) and the LPC (-6%) losing vote share since December 2018. While both parties declined, the broader decline of the LPC, meant that the two parties were tied at 28% each, with this being the only province where the NDP remains competitive (23%).

 

The SNC Lavalin issue (which broke as this study was being fielded), seems to have had a negative impact on the Prime Minister’s net approval rating with it doubling to -18% from -9% in December 2018.  Most Canadians (53%) now disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau was doing as Prime Minister.  NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s net approval rating also experienced a sharp decline to -23% further down from -15% in December 2018, with nearly half of Canadian’s expressing no opinion of him (45%) and a mere 16% expressing approval. Unlike his party brand, Andrew Scheer did not immediately benefit from his rival’s unpopularity and his net approval rating also fell to -4% from -1% in December 2018. In terms of who the public considered to be the best Prime Minister, Andrew Scheer (25%) is now neck in neck with Justin Trudeau (28%) with a mere 3% difference compared to a 10% difference in December2018. 

 

“Despite impressive gains by the Conservative Party over the Liberal Party and the public now viewing Andrew Scheer and Justin Trudeau more equally as best Prime Minister, it still remains to be seen whether this is merely a temporary reaction to the SNC Lavalin issue or whether this new found CPC strength is sustainable through to October.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between February 7 to February 11 through an online survey of 1,590 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

 

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

 

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

 

 

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