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With less than a year to the election, no party holds a clear lead

December 18, 2018

The latest National Campaign Research Poll conducted among 1,494 Canadians revealed that the Conservatives (CPC) now hold a small lead (35%) over the Liberals (LPC, 33%), while the New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP) remained a distant third (16%). Maxime Bernier’s newly formed People’s Party of Canada only garnered 2% of the vote and doesn’t appear to be having a large impact on the CPC by splitting the right leaning vote.

Both the CPC and LPC maintained their traditional strongholds with the CPC leading in Alberta (57%) and the Prairies (46%) and the LPC leading in both Atlantic Canada (38%) and Quebec (38%). However, in the highly competitive provinces of Ontario and BC, the CPC appears to have gained the initiative. The CPC held a small lead (37%) over the LPC (36%) in seat rich Ontario and enjoyed strong support in the GTA (43%) and the rest of the province (37%), whereas the Liberal’s continued to hold a large lead in their traditional stronghold of Toronto (44%).  In BC, where there is traditionally a three-way race between the CPC, LPC and NDP, the NDP have fallen to a distant third place (21%) behind both the LPC (34%) and CPC (30%). Not only is BC and Ontario highly competitive between the LPC and CPC, but together make up around half of Canada’s population, victories in both provinces will be essential part of either parties’ path to victory.

 

None of the party leaders were popular with the public. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s net approval rating fell to -9%, down 3% since last month (-6%). NDP Jagmeet Singh fared even worse, with both a highly negative net approval rating (-15%) and low awareness with nearly half of Canadian’s expressing no opinion of him (47%). Jagmeet Singh’s personal popularity was so low that he has fallen behind Green Party leader Elizabeth May (7%) on the question of who would make the best prime minister. In comparison, the public expressed a milder view of CPC leader Andrew Scheer, giving him a neutral net approval rating of -1% and the plurality (39%) expressing no opinion of him.

 

“Heading into election year, neither the LPC nor CPC enjoy a clear lead. With the critical provinces of Ontario and BC up for grabs, both major parties have a clear path to victory. As the election draws closer, it will be interesting to see how much the popularity, or perhaps more accurately the unpopularity of the leaders will impact their party’s performance.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between December 11 to December 13 through an online survey of 1494 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

 

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

 

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

 

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