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Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked at 35% nationally; pitched battle in Ontario awaits

Liberals and Conservatives are deadlocked at a 35% share each of current voter intent across the country.

The latest National Campaign Research Poll conducted among 2512 Canadians revealed that the Liberals (LPC) and Conservatives (CPC) are deadlocked at 35% share each of voter intent across the country. The New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP) remains stalled since the beginning of the year and captured 17% of voter intent in this most recent reading. The LPC enjoys clear leads in the Atlantic, Quebec, the City of Toronto, and British Columbia while the CPC is dominant in Alberta and the Prairies. In Ontario, the Liberals (38%) and CPC (37%) are in a statistical tie.

Despite the competitive ballot question, Justin Trudeau holds a 10-point advantage on the question of who Canadians believe would make the best Prime Minister over opposition leader Andrew Sheer (32%-22%). Jagmeet Singh lags badly at a mere 6% choosing him as best Prime Minister.

Going into the election year, Canadians’ financial circumstances will be a drag on the Liberals prospects as more Canadians are pessimistic about their personal economic circumstances than are optimistic about them. 64% of Canadians disagree with the statement that “I believe the economy is getting better for people like me.” and 82% disagree with the statement that “Life is getting more affordable.”

“Although at the moment, it is a pitched battle both nationally and in seat rich Ontario, the Liberals have a clearer path to majority than the Conservatives. For the Liberals to win a majority, they only need to regain the initiative in Ontario, but for the Conservatives to win a majority they need to pull decidedly ahead in Ontario, as well as regain ground in British Columbia and Quebec”. The key for Conservatives will be to drive home the point across the country that affordability has eroded for everyday people” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc


This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between November 6 and November 9, 2018 through an online survey of 2512 randomly selected Canadian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The results have been weighted by education, age, gender, and region (and in Quebec, language) to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Canada’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

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