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Doug Ford PC’s with slim lead as NDP support shifts back to Liberals as shadow of Kathleen Wynne recedes

November 13, 2018

Ontario residents revealed that 34% of them would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PCPO) if an election were held tomorrow, holding a 2-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) at 32%.

 

 

 

 

The latest Campaign Research poll conducted among 1836 Ontario residents revealed that 34% of them would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PCPO) if an election were held tomorrow, holding a 2-point lead over the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) at 32%. Now trailing in third, the Ontario New Democratic Party (ONDP) would receive 25% of the vote. Men would be more likely to vote for the PC party (37%) compared to (30%) for the OLP, whereas women lean to the Liberals (34%) compared (31%) for the PCPO. The OLP and ONDP place first and second with the millennial vote while the PCPO maintains a clear lead with those aged 45.

 

Doug Ford’s approval rating with respect to his job performance took a hit with results coming in at 37% approve with 63% disapproving of his performance. More specifically, among men and women, 41% of men and 34% of women approved of his performance.

 

On recently announced labour reform rollbacks it’s clear the Ford government has a sales job to do, with a majority of Ontarians preferring the previous Liberal government’s labour policies. Most Ontarians (52%) oppose the freezing of the minimum wage at $14 until 2020 compared to 42% who support it. 56% of Ontarians oppose the roll-back of 3 hours shift payments for cancelled shifts within 48 hours compared to 34% who support it. 55% oppose the re-instatement of the requirement for doctor’s notes compared to 39% who support it. The withdrawal of the requirement for paid sick days is the least popular labour reform rollback with 77% opposed compared to 17% in favour.

 

On the reasons why, the Ford Government appears to be sagging, “Saying you want to make Ontario ‘open for business’ doesn’t appear to be enough justification for rolling back popular labour reforms”. On the Liberals pulling back into second, “As Kathleen Wynne starts to fade from memory among the Ontario electorate, the Liberals seem to be regaining consideration from Ontarians.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. 


METHODOLOGY

 

This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between November 06 and November 09, 2018 through an online survey of 1830 randomly selected Ontarian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Ontario’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. 

 

The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Ontario’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Ontario. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

 

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study


"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

 

 

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