The latest Campaign Research poll conducted among 1480 Ontario residents revealed that 39% of them would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party (PC) if an election were held tomorrow, holding an 11-point lead over the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 28%. Slightly behind is the Liberal Party (LP) which would receive 25% of the vote. Men would be more likely to vote for the PC party (42%), whereas women would be closely split between the PC and NDP parties (35% and 32%, respectively). The LP would receive a plurality of 18-24 year old votes (35%), however the NDP would capture the remainder of millennial votes (25-34 year olds) at 38%. Moreover, over 40% of those aged 45+ would vote for the PC party.
Doug Ford’s approval rating with respect to his job performance for the month of July was 49%. More specifically, among men and women, 56% of men approved of his performance whereas 58% of women disapproved. Furthermore, Ford experienced greater approval ratings from those aged of 45+, as well as those living in the Halton/Peel and York/Simcoe/Durham regions, where approval was over 50%. Approval was also the highest among those whose annual household income is over $250,000 (61%). Disapproval ratings for Ford were the highest among those younger than 44 years old, as well as those living in Ottawa (62%) and Toronto (61%).
Comparatively, over half of Ontario residents (55%) approved of the job John Fraser is doing as the interim leader of the Liberal Party of Ontario. Residents in Ottawa and Toronto exhibited the strongest levels of support with approval ratings over 60%. Similarly, Andrea Horvath also received strong support as 62% of people in Ontario approved of the job she is doing as the leader of the NDP. This level of support was consistent among all age groups and regions, with the exception of Halton/Peel and York/Simcoe/Durham regions where approval was below 60%. Both leaders received a larger amount of support from female voters than male, as well as Liberal and NDP voters. PC voters showed strong disapproval ratings for both leaders.
“There is no “voter remorse” among the Ontario electorate. Ontarians are happy with the choice they made last month when they selected the PC Party and Doug Ford to govern the province. Premier Ford has high personal approval ratings and the PC Party would still receive a plurality of support, if another election were held today.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.
This online study was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between July 9 and July 10 through an online survey of 1480 randomly selected Ontarian adults who are members of Maru/Blue’s online panel Maru Voice Canada and were provided with various incentives to respond. The panelists were selected to reflect Ontario’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size has an estimated margin of error (which measures sampling variability) of +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The results have been weighted by age, gender, and region to match the population according to 2016 Census data. Certain areas or groups may be oversampled but have been weighted to reflect their proportion of Ontario’s population. This is to ensure the sample is representative of the entire adult population of Ontario. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study "Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"