Strong support for Tory continues into election year

Ford still has room to grow

January’s Campaign Research Poll was an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 752 Toronto voters. Our latest research on Toronto’s mayoral race found that there continues to be a large gap between Mayor John Tory and former Councilor Doug Ford. Of decided voters, Tory received 61% support. Voter intent for Ford was at 24%, while support for Desmond Cole was at 7%. A small portion of Torontonians (8%) preferred another candidate for mayor.

It is important to note that Ford's support remained relatively consistent throughout 2017, achieving between 23% and 29%. A voter gap analysis we conducted in September 2017 indicated that 33% of Torontonians would consider voting for Ford. The result is similar to Ford’s performance in the 2014 election, where he garnered 33.7% of the vote. Although Ford is currently at 24%, he still has the ability to grow his support.

Voter intent for Tory is high among all ages and genders in each region of the city. Tory’s support continues to transcend partisanship as well, garnering strong support from all provincial political party supporters (Liberals= 69%, PCs= 56%, NDP= 51%, Green= 58%). Conversely, Ford’s support is primarily derived from PCs (Liberals= 15%, PCs= 40%, NDP= 23%, Green= 18%), while Desmond Cole received most of his support from the left side of the political spectrum (Liberals= 7%, PCs= 1%, NDP= 15%, Green= 7%).

Our latest data indicates that most Torontonians (59%) approve of the job Tory has done thus far as mayor. This is further reflected in his +38% net approval rating (21% disapprove). Torontonians’ strong approval for Tory exists across all demographic groups. Interestingly, 25% of Ford voters also approved of the job Tory has done.

Ford does not share the same high approval ratings. In fact, Ford has a net approval rating of -18% (26% approval subtracted by 44% disapproval). Conversely, Ford received 12% approval from those that say they would vote for Tory. In terms of regional support, the majority of Etobicoke York (57%), North York (59%), Scarborough (59%) Downtown and East York (59%) residents approve of the job that Tory has done. Ford’s approval ratings vary between 19% and 34% across the various regions in the city.

“Torontonians have had 3 years to evaluate Mayor Tory and he consistently scores well above his result in the 2014 election. Throughout 2017, and into 2018, Doug Ford has not been able to garner above 29% voter intent.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between January 9th to 11th 2018, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 752 Toronto voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Toronto’s age and gender distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.

A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by age and gender of Toronto according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"