December 13, 2017 – December’s Campaign Research Poll was an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 683 Toronto voters.
This month we tested Councillor Josh Matlow as the third, in a series of potential candidates for mayor, on the ballot along with Mayor John Tory and former Councillor Doug Ford. Councillor Matlow was selected because he has recently garnered media attention, meeting with Torontonians who do not live in his Ward. This resembles a strategy used by former Mayor Rob Ford, who traveled across the City of Toronto to meet with constituents prior to his mayoral campaign launch.
Our most recent study found that a sizeable gap (28%) continues to exist in voter intent between John Tory and Doug Ford. Tory’s voter intent continues to remain high, up by 1% since November (December= 57%). Ford made some progress on this front with his voter intent increasing 2% since last month (December= 29%). Torontonians’ voter intent for Matlow was 7% overall and “Another Candidate” received 8% support across the City.
It is important to note that Ford's ballot number had dropped to 23% in early October. In June 2017, we found Ford support at 29%. The Voter Gap Analysis we conducted in our September Poll showed Ford’s ceiling at 33%. Although 67% of Torontonians claimed they would not vote for Ford, in theory Ford still has room to grow. Regardless, he has been able to recover since his announcement that he would seek the mayoralty.
Confidence in Tory continues among all age groups, genders and regions. It is also important to note that support for Tory continues to transcend partisanship. In fact, Tory has strong support from all types of provincial political party supporters (Liberals= 72%, Conservatives= 43%, NDP= 50%, Green= 41%). Ford does not share this strong support from voters across all provincial parties. Conversely, only PC’s strongly support him at 50% (Liberals= 18%, NDP= 19%, Green= 27%). Interestingly, support for Josh Matlow comes from the left side of the political spectrum (Liberals= 6%, Conservatives= 4%, NDP= 13%, Green= 16%).
Our latest data indicates that most Torontonians (55%) approve of the job Tory has done thus far as mayor. This is also evident from his +32% net approval rating. Torontonians strong approval for Tory exists across all demographics. However, his approval rating is highest among those between 35-44 years of age (63%) and 65 years of age and older (66%). Tory also received significant support from woman (60%) and provincial Liberal supporters (69%). Interestingly, 27% of Ford supporters approve of Tory’s accomplishments as mayor.
Ford does not share the same high approval ratings as Tory. In fact, Ford has a net approval rating of -12% (29% approval subtracted by 41% disapproval). Interestingly, Ford’s highest approval comes from Torontonians aged 35-44 years of age (41%) and provincial PC supporters (45%). Ford receives 15% approval from Tory supporters.
Josh Matlow has a net approval rating of +5% (19% approval subtracted by 14% disapproval) but most people (68%) do not have an opinion. This may be due to his low awareness among Torontonians.
In terms of regional support, the majority of Etobicoke York (54%), North York (57%), Scarborough (51%) Downtown and East York (58%) residents approve of the job that Tory has done so far. Ford’s approval ratings within these regions are less impressive, varying between 25% and 33% in each region of the City. Downtown and East York residents disapprove of Ford the most (54%).
“If Councillor Matlow is seriously considering a run for mayor, he has a long way to go to be competitive with the other known candidates. Doug Ford has yet to receive above 30% voter intent in 2017. Ford received 33.7% of the vote share in the 2014 election. Mayor Tory continues to enjoy majority support of Torontonians and achieves a strong +32% net job approval rating.” – Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.
This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between December 3rd to 6th 2017, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 683 Toronto voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Toronto’s age and gender distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.
A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by the age and gender of Toronto according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.
The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study
"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"