Voting intent for Liberals off from high, for second straight month

Justin Trudeau approval also off for second straight month

The latest Campaign Research Poll conducted among a sample of 2,616 Canadian voters found no shift between the Liberals and Conservatives in voter support since last month. The Liberals maintained an 8% lead over the Conservatives and have the support of 38% of decided voters. Conversely, the Conservatives have 30% of decided voters in their corner. It is important to note, however, that this is the first time all year that the Liberals fell below 40%, two months in a row. Perhaps some of the contentious policy issues they’ve been dealing with, such as the proposed tax reforms, are finally impacting their support. Support for the NDP has been the same month over month (19%) while the Green Party’s support decreased 1% to maintain 7% of the electorate. Millennials (ages 18-24) continue to be the Liberals strongest supporters with 44% of them indicating they would vote Liberal. Perhaps millennials are supporting the Liberal Party on account of their plan to legalize cannabis.

Similar to the Liberal Party’s voter intent, Justin Trudeau’s personal popularity this month remained the same with October’s figures. It is also the first time his personal popularity remained below 50% for more than a month. Unsurprisingly, Trudeau’s disapproval numbers have been consistently high for two months at 38%. Despite this, a plurality (46%) of Canadians approve of Trudeau, resulting in a net approval score of +8%. Andrew Scheer continues to be unfamiliar among the electorate, with 56% of Canadians suggesting they don’t know much about Scheer. He has an approval and disapproval of 22%, respectively. It will be interesting to see if the Conservative Party’s recent advertising will resonate with the electorate and increase Scheer’s profile. Despite the buzz surrounding newly minted NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, nearly 2/3 (61%) of Canadians no nothing about him. If either the Conservative or NDP leader has any hope of capturing the minds and imaginations of Canadian voters, they are going to need to do something to raise their profile.

“After months of public and media backlash surrounding the Finance Minister and the proposed small business tax changes, it appears things have finally caught up to the Liberals and Justin Trudeau. If left unaddressed, the trajectory for both leader and party is headed in an undesirable direction” – Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc. Eli can be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or (647) 931-4025 ext. 109.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between November 6th to 9th 2017, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 2,616 Canadian voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Canada’s age, gender and regional distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.

A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by age, gender and regions of Canada according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"