Torontonians’ Choose Tory Two To One Over Ford

John Tory continues to be popular among Torontonians

The ninth wave of Campaign Research’s poll – an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 699 Toronto voters – found that a sizeable gap (29%) continues to exist in voter intent between John Tory (56%) and Doug Ford (27%). This discrepancy is less than last month (35%). Tory’s voter intent continues to remain high, only dropping 2% since October (58%). Ford made some progress on this front with his voter intent increasing 4% since last month (23%).

Confidence in Tory continues among all age groups, genders and regions. It is also important to note that support for Tory continues to transcend partisanship. In fact, Tory has strong support from all types of federal voters (Liberals= 69%, Conservatives= 45%, NDP= 50%, Green= 47%). Ford does not share this strong support from voters across all federal parties. Conversely, only federal Conservative voters strongly support him (49%). Support for Desmond Cole is highest among federal NDP (11%) and Green Party (14%) voters. However, his support remains too low to pose a threat to either candidate at this stage.

Our latest data indicates that the majority of Torontonians (55%) continue to approve of the job Tory has done thus far as mayor. This is also evident from his +32% net approval rating. Torontonians strong approval for Tory exists across various economic backgrounds. However, his approval rating is highest among those who earn between $85,000 and $100,000 annually (59%) as well as Torontonians earning between $100,000 and $125,000 (64%).

Ford does not share the same high approval ratings as Tory. Conversely, Ford has a net approval rating of -12% (32% approval subtracted by 44% disapproval). Similarly, he does not share in Tory’s support across all economic backgrounds. Interestingly, Ford’s highest approval comes from Torontonians who earn under $30,000 annually (36%).

Desmond Cole has a net approval rating of -4% (12% approval subtracted by 16% disapproval). His approval rating remains low among voters from various economic backgrounds (between 9% and 19%). This is largely because they are unfamiliar with him. In fact, 72% of Toronto voters did not know of Cole. If his awareness improves it is possible that we could see an increase in his approval ratings.

In terms of regional support, the majority of North York (57%), Scarborough (51%) and East York (61%) residents approve of the job that John Tory has done so far. Ford’s approval ratings within these regions are less impressive. His greatest support comes from Scarborough, which is unsurprising considering this region was his brother’s stronghold when he won the mayoral election in 2010. East York residents disapprove of Ford the most (57%). Ford will have to garner greater approval in other regions such as North York (33%) and Etobicoke (39%) to compensate for his low approval rating in East York (20%). This is one strategy to help him become more competitive with Tory. Cole’s approval rating in these regions is also low. His highest approval comes from East York (15%). Similar to his low approval across different economic demographics in Toronto, these low ratings are largely a result of his unfamiliarity among Torontonians.

“John Tory remains the most popular choice for mayor among Torontonians by a margin of 2 to 1 over Ford.” – Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research Inc.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted by Campaign Research as part of its monthly omnibus study between November 6th to 9th 2017, The study was conducted among a random sample from an online panel of 699 Toronto voters whose incentives for participation were handled by the panel provider and who were selected to reflect Toronto’s age and gender distributions in line with 2016 Statistics Canada census data.

A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7%, 19 out of 20 times. Data was weighted by the age and gender of Toronto according to 2016 Statistics Canada census data. If you require more information, please contact us as it is available upon request.

The following screening question was asked in order to determine eligibility for participation in the study

"Are you 18 years of age or older and eligible to vote in federal elections?"

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