Federal Liberals with 12 point lead

In the seventh wave of the Campaign Research Poll, a national online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 1770 Canadian voters, more than 4 in 10 will vote Liberal if a federal election were held tomorrow (42%), while 3 in 10 will vote Conservative (30%). This represents a slight uptick for the Liberals since July (July 13 - 40%) while the Conservative vote has not changed (July 13 - 31%). The NDP remains at one sixth vote share (16%), and this represents a decline from a position they have held for months previously (July - 19%).

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are dominant (54%), while the Conservatives (21%) and NDP (18%) compete for second place. In Quebec, the Liberals lead (45%), the NDP(18%) and the Bloc Quebecois (20%) are tied, and the Conservatives are third (12%). In vote-rich Ontario, where elections are won and lost, the Liberals have a 10 point lead over the Conservatives (44% to 34%) while the NDP lag (16%). On the Prairies, the Liberals lead (40%), remarkably by a significant margin over the Conservatives (31%). Here, where they were born, the NDP puts up its best showing (21%). In Alberta, the Conservatives have a 20 point lead over the Liberals (47% to 27%), while the NDP trails (10%). In BC, the Liberals are second (35%) to the Conservatives (38%), while the NDP are in third (17%).

TRUDEAU MOST POPULAR LEADER, SCHEER LEAST POPULAR

Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than half of all voters (52%), and his net favourability (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +16. After Trudeau, Thomas Mulcair has the approval of 3 in 10 (30%), and his net is a neutral +3. Andrew Scheer, however, has approval from fewer than one quarter of voters (23%) and his net score is 0, or completely neutral. This is because more than one half of voters don’t know enough about him to offer an opinion (54%).

Trudeau has the approval of almost every Liberal (90%), more than half of all New Democrats (54%) and even a minority of Conservatives (13%). Mulcair has the approval of just more than half of New Democrats (57%), 3 in 10 Liberals (30%) and about one quarter of Conservatives (23%). Scheer has the approval of just more than half his party (55%), while Liberals (13%) and New Democrats (7%) are not enthusiastic.

TRUDEAU SEEN TO MAKE BEST PRIME MINISTER

More than 4 in 10 voters see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister, equal to his party’s vote share (42%). Fewer than a third of this proportion see Andrew Scheer as best PM (13%), and this is less than half his party’s vote share (30%). Very few see Thomas Mulcair (8%) or anyone else as best Prime Minister. About a tenth see no one party leader as best (12%), and considerably more just don’t know (17%).

More than 8 in 10 Liberals see Justin Trudeau as the best Prime Minister (82%), while only about one half of Conservatives see Andrew Scheer as best PM (48%). More New Democrats support Trudeau for Prime Minister (32%) than support their own leader (27%).

LIBERALS SEEN TO BE MOST LIKELY VICTORS IN 2019 BY FAR

Close to half of all voters expect the Liberals to win the next federal election (46%), and this is a larger share of the populace than their vote share, indicating supporters of other parties don't expect their party selection to prevail. One quarter sees the Conservatives as the victors (25%) which is lower than their vote share. The same applies to the New Democrats, favoured to win by just one twentieth (6%), compared to a voting intention of three times that (16%).

“Not only have the Liberals maintained their position since we polled in July, they have improved it slightly, which would suggest the proposed changes to corporation taxes have not yet damaged them politically, any more than the Omar Khadr episode has. It would seem, despite some controversial policy decisions, the Liberals are, to date, immune from paying a political price for their actions” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931 4025, ext. 109

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between September 8 and 11, 2017 among a panel of 1770 Canadian voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3%, 19 out of 20 times.