John Tory has twice the vote share of Doug Ford, few would support a Mike Layton bid

September 18, 2017

In the seventh wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 523 Toronto voters, more than half will vote for John Tory for mayor if an election were held tomorrow (52%), double the support of Doug Ford (26%). Progressive councillor Mike Layton draws the support of one tenth (12%). These results are very similar to those seen in July (Tory - 50%, Ford - 27%, Layton - 14%).

 

 

 

VOTER GAP ANALYSIS

John Tory has a significant lead (26%) over both Doug Ford (15%) and Mike Layton (5%) with voters who will only consider voting for one candidate “voter floor.” Two thirds of the population will not consider voting for either Doug Ford nor Mike Layton at this time.  

 

DOUG FORD’S FAVOURABLES DOWN

Mayor Tory has the approval of more than half the electorate (54%), and his net favourability (approve minus disapprove) is a healthy and positive +29. This compares favourably with July,when he had the approval of the majority (55%) and his net score was similarly high +31.

 

Doug Ford’s approval is down from more than a third last month (35%) to less than 3 in 10 now (29%). His net score is a very negative -21, well down from -11 in July.

 

Mike Layton suffers from low awareness (51% don’t know) and the opinions of those who have an opinion are exactly split, with one quarter approving (24%) and disapproving (25), leaving him with a neutral favourability score of -1.

 

“Our research in 2014 showed Doug Ford with a voter ceiling of 35%. Doug Ford ultimately received 33.7% of the vote in the 2014 mayoral campaign. Our results today continue to show that two thirds of the electorate are still not willing to consider voting for Doug Ford.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931 4025, ext. 109

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This online poll was conducted between September 8 and 13, 2017 among a panel of 523 Toronto voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3%, 19 out of 20 times.

 

 

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