Progressive Conservatives with 5 point lead on Liberals; Andrea Horwath most popular party leader

In the seventh wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 1133 Ontario voters, just fewer than 4 in 10 will vote for the PCs if an election were held tomorrow (38%), while one third will vote liberal (33%). This has cut the PC lead to just +5 points compared to +7 points in July. The NDP would claim just under a quarter of the vote share (23%) while the Green Party does not compete (6%).

HORWATH MOST POPULAR LEADER

Andrea Horwath has the approval of close to 4 in 10 voters (37%), and her net favourability (approve minus disapprove) is a very healthy +18. Patrick Brown has the approval of just over a quarter (28%) and his net favourability is a modest +6. Fully one half don’t know enough about Brown to form an opinion (50%). Kathleen Wynne earns the approval of just one fifth of voters (19%) and her net favourability score is a very negative -48.

BROWN AND HORWATH TIED FOR BEST PREMIER

Both Patrick Brown (22%) and Andrea Horwath (20%) are seen to be good choices for provincial premier, while Kathleen Wynne languishes on this measure (14%). One fifth either see none of these three as best (19%) or don’t have an opinion (25%).

“The Progressive Conservatives should be able to make a better showing against a leader as unpopular as Kathleen Wynne, but they are hindered by the low approval given their leader. The Liberals outperform their leader, as do the PCs, but the provincial NDP definitely underperforms Andrea Horwath” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931 4025, ext. 109

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between September 8 and 11, 2017 among a panel of 1133 Ontario voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9%, 19 out of 20 times.