Tory continues to best Ford in mayoral race

In the sixth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 506 Toronto voters, one half will vote to reelect Mayor John Tory if an election were held tomorrow (50%), while one quarter would vote Doug Ford (27%). Half this proportion would cast a vote for Councillor Mike Layton (14%).

The mayor’s support is strong among the youngest (60%), federal Liberals (66%), among the wealthy ($60K to $80K and $100K to $250K - 60% each), provincial Liberals (58%) and among those who get around the city by car (53%). Ford’s support is found among Gen X (45 to 54 - 32%), males (29%) more so than among females (25%), federal Conservatives (48%) and provincial PCs (44%), among the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 41%), in Etobicoke (36%) and Scarborough (40%). Mike Layton’s support, is stronger amongst the young Gen X (35 to 44 - 18%), federal New Democrats (40%), the least wealthy (less than $20K - 34%), provincial New Democrats (29%), in East York (27% - caution: small base size) and by those who walk to get around the city (24%).

NO CHANGE IN FAVOURABLES; JUST HALF KNOW LAYTON

More than one half of voters approve of Mayor Tory (55%), and this is identical to last month (June 13 - 55%). His net favourability (approve minus disapprove) is a very healthy and positive +31 (vs. 30% last month) . Just more than a third approve of Doug Ford (35%, consistent with last month - 32%), and his net score is a negative -11. One half don’t know enough about Mike Layton to rate him (51%), but he has the approval of a quarter of the electorate (25%), and a net favourability score of a neutral +2. This represents a decline since we last tracked Layton, two months ago (May 16, approval - 29%, net score +10).

STRONG APPROVAL FOR PROVINCIAL FUNDING REQUEST

Three quarters of Torontonians agree with the mayor’s motion creating a formal campaign to seek additional transit and housing funds from the province (75%), while just one tenth disapprove of this idea (11%). Approval is especially characteristic of the oldest (87%), federal New Democrats (86%), the least wealthy (84%), provincial Liberals (85%), in East York (84% - caution: small base size) and among those who get around by transit (81%), bicycle (77%) or walking (77%).

“The political landscape hasn’t shifted significantly in Toronto since last month, and Mayor Tory continues to enjoy widespread support. There is considerable enthusiasm for his repeated calls on the province to stand up to its responsibility in funding transit and housing in Toronto” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931 4025, ext 109

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between July 7 and July 10, among a panel of 506 Toronto residents. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%, 19 out of 20 times.