Khadr payout leaves Trudeau’s, Scheer’s approvals ratings unaffected

In the sixth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, a national online public opinion omnibus survey conducted among a sample of 1,540 Canadian voters, 4 in 10 will vote Liberal if a federal election were held tomorrow (40%), while 3 in 10 would vote Conservative (31%). One fifth will vote for the NDP (19% - a proportion which hasn’t changed in months). These findings are very similar to those noted last month (June 12, 2017 – Liberals - 39%, Conservatives - 30%); as are the approval levels for the party leaders.

Close to half of voters in Atlantic Canada (49%) supported the Liberals; meanwhile, the Conservatives (23%) and NDP were effectively tied (21%). In Quebec, Liberals lead by less (42%), the NDP was second (23%), and the Conservatives (15%) and Bloc (17%) are tied with the lowest support. In Ontario, where federal elections are won and lost, the Liberals lead (43%) over the Conservatives (33%) and NDP (19%). Close to half of voters in the GTA and Toronto supported the Liberals (48% each). Conversely, Conservatives lead in the Prairies (42% for Conservatives and 37% for the Liberals). The Conservatives hold their most significant lead in Alberta (68% for Conservatives to 21% for Liberals). In Alberta, the NDP were not competitive (6%). In BC, the Liberals lead (42%), the NDP were second in support (27%) and the Conservatives, third (18%).

It is also important to mention that Canadians who voted Conservative in the 2015 election were more likely to vote Conservative again in the next election (89%). A similar repeat rate did not exist with either Liberal (76%) or NDP (74%) voters.

APPROVALS STABLE FOR LEADERS

Justin Trudeau had the approval of one half of Canadian voters (49%), and a net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) of +11. This is similar to his net favourability last month (June 12, 50% approval, +15 net). Andrew Scheer had the approval of fewer than a quarter (24%), and his net score is a neutral +3. The proportion who don’t know enough about him to form an opinion remains high (55%). These findings are very similar to last month (approval - 23%, net score +6, don’t know - 60%). Thomas Mulcair had approval from 3 in 10 voters (31%), and his net score is a neutral +2. These findings are down since last month (34% approval, +9 net score).

TRUDEAU CONSIDERED TO MAKE BEST PRIME MINISTER

The plurality of Canadian voters selected Justin Trudeau as the best option for Prime Minister out of all the party leaders (38%), while just less than one fifth (17%) considered Andrew Scheer as the best candidate. Few see Mulcair as the best candidate for Prime Minister (8%), and the same applied to Elizabeth May (4%) as well as Martine Ouellet (1%).

“It appears that the Khadr controversy failed to galvanize public opinion of the Prime Minister and the government as some thought it might. No doubt, Canadians do not approve of the settlement he received, but their anger is not yet projected towards the Prime Minister. As news of the Khadr settlement percolates among the electorate, it will be interesting to see if public opinion moves against the Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931 4025, ext 109

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between July 7 and July 10, among a panel of 1540 Canadian voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%, 19 out of 20 times.