TORONTO, JUNE 13, 2017 - In the fifth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 617 Toronto voters, results indicate more than half would support John Tory if a mayoral election were held tomorrow (54%). In contrast, fewer than 3 in 10 Torontonians said that they would vote for Doug Ford (29%). Richard Peddie, a Toronto businessman who has expressed interest in running as a progressive, claims a very small share of the vote (3%). Tory’s popularity is especially high among younger voters (64%), females (57%) as well as Toronto’s wealthiest voters ($100K to $250K - 63%). While two thirds of provincial Liberal voters (65%) would support John Torry, he would attract approximately half or fewer PC voters (48%) and provincial NDP voters (43%). Doug Ford is popular with Gen X (45 to 54 - 34%), males (32%) and middle-income Torontonians ($40K to $60K - 37%). He is supported by close to half of provincial PC voters (45%). The demographic who would support Richard Peddie largely constitutes younger voters (25 to 34 - 14%), the wealthy ($80K to $100K - 7%) and provincial Liberals (6%).
LITTLE CHANGE IN FAVOURABLES, PEDDIE ALMOST UNKNOWN
John Tory has the approval of more than one half of Toronto voters (55%). This figure represents a slight decrease from last month (May 16 - 60%); however, John Tory’s net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) was a very positive +30. Doug Ford’s approval rating was one-third (32%), which is consistent with his ratings from last month. His net score is a negative -12. Richard Peddie’s approval rating remains lower than those of John Tory and Doug Ford (8%). Similarly, his disapproval rating also remains low (16%); however, these figures may change in the future as the majority of Torontonians continue to be unfamiliar with him (76%).
VOTERS SIDE WITH MAYOR, NOT PREMIER, ON TRANSIT/HOUSING FUNDING
Voters were asked who they believed on the issue of funding for Toronto transit and community housing. With respect to this issue, Mayor John Tory claims the province is not holding up its share of financing; alternatively, Premier Kathleen Wynne suggests that the Province is keeping all its promises. Voters found the Mayor to be more credible (50%) in a five to one imbalance against the Premier (10%). Interestingly, one quarter of survey respondents believed neither was telling the truth (25%). One sixth didn’t have an opinion (15%); this is especially the case among among provincial Liberals (18%) but not so much among provincial PC voters (6%) and New Democrats (6%).
“The mayor continues to dominate the arena in Toronto, to the detriment of his perennial challenger, Doug Ford. In addition to maintaining his popularity, the Mayor appears to be successful at communicating his firmly held position that the province needs to step up and do its part in funding transit and housing in the city. Voters are five times more likely to believe the mayor on this measure, than to believe the Premier’s assurances that the province is doing its share” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or at (647) 931 4025, ext 109.
This online poll was conducted between June 9 and 12, 2017, among a panel of 617 Toronto voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%, 19 out of 20 times.