Federal Liberals retain lead over Conservatives, rebound from April slump
In the fourth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 1,969 adult Canadians, more than 4 in 10 voters will support the federal Liberals if an election were held tomorrow (43%), and this represents an increase in vote share from last month (April 15 - 38%). In the meantime, the federal Conservatives have seen their vote share decline slightly (from 29% in April to 27% now). This has led to a 16 point Liberal lead, up from a 9 point lead last month. The NDP are stable at one fifth of the vote (19%). It should be noted that levels of electoral support for the three main parties are almost identical to those noted in March of this year (Liberals - 43%, Conservatives -27%, NDP - 16%).
The Liberal vote is especially common to the youngest (49%), Atlantic Canada (57%) and the
very wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 48%). The Conservative vote is higher among the oldest (65+
- 35%), males (29%) rather than females (26%), in Alberta (53%), in the GTA surrounding
Toronto (34%) and among mid ($60K to $80K - 30%) and high income groups ($100K to $250K -
30%). The NDP vote is characteristic of mid aged groups (35 to 44 - 28%) and in Quebec (25%)
and BC (26%).
The Liberals lead every region except the Prairies and Alberta. In Atlantic Canada, their lead is
dominant (57%), and the Conservatives (18%) and NDP (16%) are tied. In Quebec, the Liberals
lead (45%), the NDP are second (25%) and the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives vie for third
(11% and 13%, respectively). In Ontario, the Liberals have half the vote (47%) to 3-in-10 for the
Conservatives (31%) and half that for the NDP (17%). The prairies feature a Conservative lead
(42%), followed by the Liberals (30%) and the NDP third (20%). In Alberta, the Conservatives
have more than half the vote (53%), while the Liberals have about half this share (28%) and the
NDP trails (11%). In BC, the Liberals lead over the Conservatives (39% to 19%) and the NDP put
in their best showing nationwide with a quarter of the vote (26%).
Of note, the Conservatives have the most efficient vote, in that significantly more 2015
Conservative voters will vote their party in the next election (90%) than is the case with either
the Liberals (79%) or the NDP (77%). About one tenth of 2015 Liberals will vote NDP this time
around (10%) and a similar proportion of 2015 NDP voters will return the favour (13%).
Trudeau’s favourability up, others are stable
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than half the electorate (53%), up from just less than a half in April (48%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +20. Rona Ambrose has the approval of just more than a quarter (28%), stable from April (25%). Her net favourable score is a positive +7. Thomas Mulcair has approval from one third (33%), similar to last month (April 18 - 32%) and his net score is a positive +8.
“The Liberals appear to have conquered whatever demons afflicted them in the past few
months, and may be seeing a resurrection of the permanent honeymoon they have had with
voters until recently,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at
eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.
METHODOLOGY
This online poll was conducted between May 9 and 13, 2017, among a sample of 1,969 adult
Canadians. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2%,
19 times out of 20.
