In the fourth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 1,969 adult Canadians, more than 4 in 10 voters will support the federal Liberals if an election were held tomorrow (43%), and this represents an increase in vote share from last month (April 15 - 38%). In the meantime, the federal Conservatives have seen their vote share decline slightly (from 29% in April to 27% now). This has led to a 16 point Liberal lead, up from a 9 point lead last month. The NDP are stable at one fifth of the vote (19%). It should be noted that levels of electoral support for the three main parties are almost identical to those noted in March of this year (Liberals - 43%, Conservatives -27%, NDP - 16%).
The Liberal vote is especially common to the youngest (49%), Atlantic Canada (57%) and the
very wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 48%). The Conservative vote is higher among the oldest (65+
- 35%), males (29%) rather than females (26%), in Alberta (53%), in the GTA surrounding
Toronto (34%) and among mid ($60K to $80K - 30%) and high income groups ($100K to $250K -
30%). The NDP vote is characteristic of mid aged groups (35 to 44 - 28%) and in Quebec (25%)
and BC (26%).
The Liberals lead every region except the Prairies and Alberta. In Atlantic Canada, their lead is
dominant (57%), and the Conservatives (18%) and NDP (16%) are tied. In Quebec, the Liberals
lead (45%), the NDP are second (25%) and the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives vie for third
(11% and 13%, respectively). In Ontario, the Liberals have half the vote (47%) to 3-in-10 for the
Conservatives (31%) and half that for the NDP (17%). The prairies feature a Conservative lead
(42%), followed by the Liberals (30%) and the NDP third (20%). In Alberta, the Conservatives
have more than half the vote (53%), while the Liberals have about half this share (28%) and the
NDP trails (11%). In BC, the Liberals lead over the Conservatives (39% to 19%) and the NDP put
in their best showing nationwide with a quarter of the vote (26%).
Of note, the Conservatives have the most efficient vote, in that significantly more 2015
Conservative voters will vote their party in the next election (90%) than is the case with either
the Liberals (79%) or the NDP (77%). About one tenth of 2015 Liberals will vote NDP this time
around (10%) and a similar proportion of 2015 NDP voters will return the favour (13%).
Trudeau’s favourability up, others are stable
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the approval of more than half the electorate (53%), up from
just less than a half in April (48%). His net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a
positive +20. Rona Ambrose has the approval of just more than a quarter (28%), stable from
April (25%). Her net favourable score is a positive +7. Thomas Mulcair has approval from one
third (33%), similar to last month (April 18 - 32%) and his net score is a positive +8.
“The Liberals appear to have conquered whatever demons afflicted them in the past few
months, and may be seeing a resurrection of the permanent honeymoon they have had with
voters until recently,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at
email@example.com or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.
This online poll was conducted between May 9 and 13, 2017, among a sample of 1,969 adult
Canadians. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2%,
19 times out of 20.