John Tory's support up, Doug Ford's down. Most favour Scarborough Subway, will vote Tory as
In the fourth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online
omnibus opinion survey conducted among 1,969 adult Canadians, and including 458 Toronto
voters, more than one half of Torontonians will vote for John Tory for mayor if the municipal
election were held tomorrow (54%), while just one fifth will vote Doug Ford, the presumptive
challenger (22%). This represents an increase in Tory’s support since last month (April 14 -
50%), and a decrease in support for Doug Ford (April 14 - 29%). Progressive councillor Mike
Layton, who was not tracked last month, has one seventh of the vote (14%), or one half the
vote share of Doug Ford. Tory’s support is especially common to the oldest (65%) and the less
wealthy ($20K to $40K - 64%), as well as among provincial Liberal voters (62%). Ford’s support
is characteristic of mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 29%) and provincial PC supporters (36%).
Mike Layton’s support is strongest among females (17%) rather than males (12%), the least
wealthy (29%) and among provincial NDP supporters (27%).
Tory’s approval surges, Layton approval significant despite few who know him
Mayor Tory has the approval of 6 in 10 (60%), and this is a clear increase since last month (April
- 49%). His net favourability score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +37. Doug
Ford’s approval stands at one third (32%), similar to last month (April - 34%), and his net score
has decreased to an even less favourable -15. Mike Layton, who wasn’t tracked last month, has
the approval of 3 in 10 (29%) and a positive net favourable score of +10. More than half the
electorate don’t know enough about him to make a judgement, however (52%).
Majority approves of Scarborough Subway Extension
Six in ten Torontonians approve of the Scarborough Subway Extension (SSE - 59%), and one fifth
disapprove (20%). A similar proportion doesn’t offer an opinion (21%). Favouring the SSE is
common to Gen X (45 to 54 - 68%), but not as much to the oldest (44%). Others who approve
include mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 70%). Disapproval is highest among the oldest
(27%), males (26%) rather than females (15%) and among the wealthiest ($100K to $250K -
30%).
“Mayor Tory enjoys increasing support among the electorate. He has significant support
across all provincial party lines. Despite recent struggles with Premier Wynne over road tolls
and provincial funding for housing, Mayor Tory’s focus on building transit and funding
housing properly have been recognized.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be
reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.
METHODOLOGY
This online poll was conducted between May 9 and 13, 2017, among a sample of 1,969 adult
Canadians. The Toronto sample, upon which this data is based, comprised 458 Toronto
residents. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 5%, 19
times out of 20.
