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John Tory's support up, Doug Ford's down. Most favour Scarborough Subway, will vote Tory as a result

May 20, 2017

In the fourth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online

omnibus opinion survey conducted among 1,969 adult Canadians, and including 458 Toronto

voters, more than one half of Torontonians will vote for John Tory for mayor if the municipal

election were held tomorrow (54%), while just one fifth will vote Doug Ford, the presumptive

challenger (22%). This represents an increase in Tory’s support since last month (April 14 -

50%), and a decrease in support for Doug Ford (April 14 - 29%). Progressive councillor Mike

Layton, who was not tracked last month, has one seventh of the vote (14%), or one half the

vote share of Doug Ford. Tory’s support is especially common to the oldest (65%) and the less

wealthy ($20K to $40K - 64%), as well as among provincial Liberal voters (62%). Ford’s support

is characteristic of mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 29%) and provincial PC supporters (36%).

Mike Layton’s support is strongest among females (17%) rather than males (12%), the least

wealthy (29%) and among provincial NDP supporters (27%).

Tory’s approval surges, Layton approval significant despite few who know him

 

Mayor Tory has the approval of 6 in 10 (60%), and this is a clear increase since last month (April

- 49%). His net favourability score (approve minus disapprove) is a very positive +37. Doug

Ford’s approval stands at one third (32%), similar to last month (April - 34%), and his net score

has decreased to an even less favourable -15. Mike Layton, who wasn’t tracked last month, has

the approval of 3 in 10 (29%) and a positive net favourable score of +10. More than half the

electorate don’t know enough about him to make a judgement, however (52%).

 

Majority approves of Scarborough Subway Extension

 

Six in ten Torontonians approve of the Scarborough Subway Extension (SSE - 59%), and one fifth

disapprove (20%). A similar proportion doesn’t offer an opinion (21%). Favouring the SSE is

common to Gen X (45 to 54 - 68%), but not as much to the oldest (44%). Others who approve

include mid income groups ($40K to $60K - 70%). Disapproval is highest among the oldest

(27%), males (26%) rather than females (15%) and among the wealthiest ($100K to $250K -

30%).

 

“Mayor Tory enjoys increasing support among the electorate. He has significant support

across all provincial party lines. Despite recent struggles with Premier Wynne over road tolls

and provincial funding for housing, Mayor Tory’s focus on building transit and funding

housing properly have been recognized.” ​said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be

reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.

 

METHODOLOGY

 

This online poll was conducted between May 9 and 13, 2017, among a sample of 1,969 adult

Canadians. The Toronto sample, upon which this data is based, comprised 458 Toronto

residents. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 5%, 19

times out of 20.

 

 

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