The Provincial Liberals will not give up without a fight

In the fourth wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 864 Ontario voters, more than one third will vote for the provincial Liberals if an election were held tomorrow (37%), putting them slightly ahead of the Progressive Conservatives (34%) for the first time this year, with the NDP still trailing (22%).

The Liberal vote is characteristic of the youngest (61%), females (39%) rather than males (35%), in the GTA surrounding Toronto (41%) and among the less wealthy ($20K to $40K - 46%). The PC vote is common to the oldest (47%), males (38%) rather than females (30%) and among the very wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 46%). The NDP vote is concentrated among the boomers (55 to 64 - 31%), females (25%) rather than males (19%), more so in Toronto (23%) than in the surrounding GTA (15%) and among the least wealthy (less than $20K - 43%).

Horwath’s approval higher than party, opposite applies to Wynne

Kathleen Wynne has the approval of one fifth of voters (19%), and her net favourability score (approve minus disapprove) remains at -50. This is similar to levels recorded last month (April 17, -53). Patrick Brown has the approval of 3 in 10 voters (29%) similar to his party’s level of support . His net score is +5. This represents a slight increase since last month (+1). Andrea Horwath personally outperforms her party with a net score of +23.

Of note, just 4 in 10 Liberals approve of their leader (44%) and a similar proportion disapproves of her (40%). One sixth don’t know her well enough to have an opinion (16%). Patrick Brown has the approval of 6 in 10 PC voters (58%) and just a tenth disapprove (7%), but his unknown factor is very high, even among his own party members (Don’t know - 35%). The vast majority of New Democrats approve of Andrea Horwath (80%) and her unknowns are very low (17%).

“Though Kathleen Wynne’s personal popularity has not improved, support for the Ontario Liberals is increasing. The movement is directly related to how popular recent policy announcements and public debate has been around issues such as pharmacare, basic income, minimum wage increase and a balanced budget. The 25% cut to hydro bills has also likely made an impact.

This is a significant turnaround for the Liberals who have been able to close the gap with the PC Party. It is clear that no one should be counting the Liberals out.” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.

METHODOLOGY

This online poll was conducted between May 9 and 13, 2017, among a sample of 864 adult Ontarians. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, 19 times out of 20.