Progressive Conservatives have 5 point lead on Ontario Liberals NDP close to second place

In the third national wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 979 Ontario voters, 36% would vote Progressive Conservative if a provincial election were held tomorrow, while just over 3 in 10 would vote for the Liberals (31%). Slightly less than this, a quarter, would vote for the NDP (25%).

The PC vote is common to the oldest (55%), males (42%) rather than females (30%), the GTA surrounding Toronto (46%) rather than inside the city boundaries (30%), and the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 45%), as well as those slightly less wealthy ($60K to $80K - 44%). The Liberal vote is characteristic of the youngest (47%), females more than males (34% to 28%), in Toronto (37%), rather than the GTA (30%) and among those in mid-income groups ($20K to $60K - 32%). The New Democrat vote is common to younger voters (35 to 44 - 29%) and the least wealthy (less than $20K - 38%).

Horwath has highest approval, Wynne the lowest, Brown largely unknown

Premier Wynne has the approval of just one sixth of voters (17%), and her net favourability score (approval minus disapproval) is an abysmal -53. Patrick Brown has the approval of one quarter (24%) and his net favourability score is a neutral -1, because he is largely unknown (51%). Andrea Horwath has the highest net favourability score (+17), even though 4 in 10 have no opinion (39%). In comparison, 14% have no opinion of the Premier.

“The Conservative lead, though solid, does not preclude the possibility of a turnaround before the next election, and this could be exacerbated by the fact that Patrick Brown is still a mystery to one half the electorate,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109

METHODOLOGY This online poll was conducted between April 3 and 11, 2017, among a sample of 979 Ontario voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, 19 times out of 20.

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