In the third national wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 979 Ontario voters, 36% would vote Progressive Conservative if a provincial election were held tomorrow, while just over 3 in 10 would vote for the Liberals (31%). Slightly less than this, a quarter, would vote for the NDP (25%).
The PC vote is common to the oldest (55%), males (42%) rather than females (30%), the GTA
surrounding Toronto (46%) rather than inside the city boundaries (30%), and the wealthiest
($100K to $250K - 45%), as well as those slightly less wealthy ($60K to $80K - 44%). The Liberal
vote is characteristic of the youngest (47%), females more than males (34% to 28%), in Toronto
(37%), rather than the GTA (30%) and among those in mid-income groups ($20K to $60K - 32%).
The New Democrat vote is common to younger voters (35 to 44 - 29%) and the least wealthy
(less than $20K - 38%).
Horwath has highest approval, Wynne the lowest, Brown largely unknown
Premier Wynne has the approval of just one sixth of voters (17%), and her net favourability
score (approval minus disapproval) is an abysmal -53. Patrick Brown has the approval of one
quarter (24%) and his net favourability score is a neutral -1, because he is largely unknown
(51%). Andrea Horwath has the highest net favourability score (+17), even though 4 in 10 have
no opinion (39%). In comparison, 14% have no opinion of the Premier.
“The Conservative lead, though solid, does not preclude the possibility of a turnaround before
the next election, and this could be exacerbated by the fact that Patrick Brown is still a
mystery to one half the electorate,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be
reached at email@example.com or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109
This online poll was conducted between April 3 and 11, 2017, among a sample of 979 Ontario
voters. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, 19
times out of 20.