Liberals slip from 16 to 9 point lead on Conservatives, NDP gains ground
In the third national wave of the Campaign Research Poll, an online omnibus opinion survey conducted among 1,970 Canadian voters, the plurality, just less than 4 in 10, would vote Liberal if a federal election were held tomorrow (38%), compared to just fewer than 3 in 10 (29%) for the Conservatives. This nine point spread compares to last month (March 11, 2017) when the Liberals posted a result of just over 4 in 10 (43%) and the Conservatives just over a quarter (27%) - a lead of sixteen points. In the meantime, the NDP is the choice of close to one fifth now (19%), compared to about one sixth last month (16%).
The Liberal vote is especially common to the youngest (45%), the Atlantic region (54%) and
Toronto (49%). The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest (65+ - 41%), males (33%)
rather than females (25%), in Alberta (48%) and the prairies (41%), and among the wealthy
($80K+ - 36%). The NDP vote is especially common to younger voters (35 to 44 - 22%), females
(21%) more than males (17%), in BC (27%), and among those in mid-income brackets ($40K to
$60K - 22%).
Of note, Conservatives have the “stickiest” vote, in that a greater proportion of past
Conservative voters would vote the same way in the next election (90%), compared to past
Liberals (78%) and past New Democrats (77%).
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead (54%), the Conservatives are second (27%) and the NDP
trails (13%). In Quebec, the Liberals lead (32%), the Bloc Quebecois is second (25%), and the
Conservatives (17%) and NDP (18%) are tied. In Ontario, the Liberals lead (43%) over the
Conservatives (32%) and the NDP trails (19%). In the prairies and Alberta, the Conservatives
lead (41% and 48%, respectively), and the Liberals are second (31% and 30%, respectively). In
BC, while the Liberals lead (36%), the Conservatives are in third place (22%) to the NDP (27%).
In Toronto, the Liberals have a strong lead (49%) over the Conservatives (28%) and the NDP
(18%), and this is mirrored in the GTA surrounding Toronto (44%, 39% and 11%, respectively).
Leader favourability steady
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of voters (48%), and his net
favourability (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +10. In comparison, last month (March
11, 2017) his approvals (51%) and favourability (+17) were not dissimilar. Interim Conservative
leader Rona Ambrose has the approval of just more than one quarter (26%) and a neutral favourability rating of +2. Last month, she was at a similar level (28%) and her favourabilityscore was identically neutral (+2). Thomas Mulcair has the approval of one third (32%), downslightly from last month (35%), while his net favourability score is a positive +7, up from +5.
Trudeau favoured over other leaders for every attribute tested
Canadian voters were asked which of the three main party leaders would handle each of five
specific issues the best, and Justin Trudeau is preferred on all, especially the critical measure of
guiding the country during a major crisis. No other leader is preferred on any issue by as many
as half those who prefer Trudeau (and, in the case of handling a major crisis, one third).
The Prime Minister is seen to be the best at the economy, foreign affairs and the environment
(30%, 39%, and 30% respectively) compared to Rona Ambrose (15%, 12% and 11%,
respectively) and Thomas Mulcair (12%, 9% and 14%, respectively). Just more than 3 in 10
prefer the Prime Minister for dealing with First Nations issues (31%) compared to half this level
for either Ambrose (10%) or Mulcair (12%). On the key measure of guiding Canada through a
major crisis, however, Trudeau is preferred by close to 4 in 10 (37%), compared to just one
tenth for the two other leaders (10% each).
“It appears Justin Trudeau earns his relatively high approval ratings through his perceived
skill at the key tasks of his job, although the party has seen its preference ratings slip slightly.
Nonetheless, the Liberals are still in the lead, and not likely to relinquish that position soon,”
said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at
eyufest@campaignresearch.ca or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109.
METHODOLOGY
This online poll was conducted between April 3 and 11, 2017, among a sample of 1,970 adult
Canadians. A probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2%,
19 times out of 20.
