Liberals bounce back with two fifth of the vote

In the second national wave of the Campaign Research Poll, a mixed-mode, online and telephone opinion survey conducted among 1,883 Canadian voters,the federal Liberals have bounced back from a tie with the Conservatives last month (February 8 - 34% each) and now lead with two fifths of the national vote share (43%). The Conservatives have, in the same period, seen their vote share decline by 7 points to just more than one quarter (27%). The NDP have the support of one sixth (16%), the Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party each claim about one twentieth of the vote (6% and 5%, respectively), while few will vote for any other party (3%).

The Liberal vote is especially common to the Atlantic provinces (55%) and among Anglophones

(45%) rather than Francophones (36%). The Conservative vote is characteristic of the oldest

(65+ - 30%), in Alberta (46%), among Anglophones (29%) rather than Francophones (15%) and

among the wealthiest ($100K to $250K - 32%). The NDP vote is especially common to the

youngest (25%), in BC (21%) and among the least wealthy ($20K or less - 23%).

The Liberals have a sound lead in the Atlantic provinces (55%), with the Conservatives far

behind (23%) and the NDP farther still (10%). In Quebec, the Liberals lead (38%), followed

relatively closely by the Bloc (25%). Third is the NDP (17%), and the Conservatives don’t really

contend (14%). In Ontario, the Liberals have a comfortable lead over the Conservatives (47% to

29%), while the NDP is third (17%). The Conservatives have a lead in the prairies (40%) over the

Liberals (34%), and the NDP do better than the national average (18%). In Alberta, the

Conservatives lead (46%), the Liberals are second (35%) and the NDP do not contend (11%). In

BC, the Liberals lead (45%), and the Conservatives (24%) and the NDP (21%) are almost tied for

second.

Of note, one sixth of those who voted NDP in the last election would vote Liberal if an election

were held tomorrow (15%).

TRUDEAU’S FAVOURABLES OVER ONE HALF

Prime Minister Trudeau has the approval of one half the voting age public (51%), and his net

favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a positive +17. This is an increase in approval

from 4-in-10 last month (February 8 - 39%). Interim leader of the Conservative Party, Rona

Ambrose, has the approval of just less than 3-in-10 (28%), and this is a decline of 8 points since February (36%). Her net score is now a neutral +2. Thomas Mulcair has the approval of onethird (34%), down from his approval last month (February 8 - 41%). His net favourable score is aslightly positive +5.

“It is apparent that, in the wake of a week or so of bad news last month, the Prime Minister

has seen his mojo return, motivated perhaps by his listening tour across Canada and his

successful trip to Washington. Whatever the reason, the Liberals are back in the driver’s seat”

said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign Research. Eli may be reached at eyufest@campaignresearch.ca

or at (647) 931-4025 ext 109

METHODOLOGY

This poll was conducted between March 5 and 7, 2017, among a sample of 1,886 Canadian

voters. The poll was conducted by a mixed-mode methodology, combining online surveys

(n=1088) and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) interviews (n=798). A probability sample of this

size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, 19 times out of 20.