Federal Liberals and Conservatives tied at one third each

In the first national wave of the Campaign Research Poll, a randomly sampled, representative telephone survey conducted among 1,457 Canadian voters, one third of the electorate would vote Liberal and one third would vote Conservative if a federal election were held tomorrow (34% each). The NDP would take about a sixth of the vote (16%), and the Greens and Bloc Quebecois about a twentieth (6% each).

The Liberal vote is especially common to females (36%) rather than males (32%); the oldest

(38%); in Atlantic Canada (46%) and to a lesser extent, Ontario (43%); those in mid-income

brackets ($60K to $80K - 40%); and among Anglophones (36%) rather than Francophones (29%).

The Conservative vote is characteristic of Alberta especially (64%); the wealthiest ($100K to

$250K - 44%); and Anglophones (38%) rather than Francophones (21%). The NDP vote is higher

in the Prairies and BC (19% each) and among those in upper income brackets ($80K to $100K -

21%).

It should be noted that among those who voted Liberal in the last election, about one tenth will

vote Conservative (12%) or NDP (11%) next time. One sixth of former NDP voters will vote

Liberal (15%) and few past Conservatives will place their vote elsewhere. The Conservative vote

is the “stickiest” in that the largest number of 2015 voters will stay with their party (86%), while

the Liberal vote (68%) and NDP vote (65%) are less sticky.

TRUDEAU’S APPROVAL FALLS BELOW 4 IN 10

Just fewer than 4 in 10 voters approve of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as Prime Minister

(39%) and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a negative -7. Rona Ambrose

has the approval of just more than a third of the electorate (36%), and her net favourable score

is a positive +7. Thomas Mulcair’s approval is at 4 in 10 (41%) and his net favourable score is a

positive +8.

DESPITE SPLIT VOTE, TRUDEAU SEEN AS BEST PRIME MINISTER

Despite the findings shown above, Justin Trudeau is seen to be the best Prime Minister (31%),

and he is followed by “none of the above” (22%). After this comes Rona Ambrose (14%), then

Thomas Mulcair (11%). Few see either Elizabeth May (6%) or especially, Rheal Fortin (1%) as

best Prime Minister.

“Needless to say, after more than a year’s honeymoon, it is surprising to see the federal

Liberals and Conservatives at parity, and especially to see the Prime Minister’s approval

ratings fall below the magic fifty percent. It will be interesting to see if this is a temporary

swoon or the beginning of a more significant decline,” said Eli Yufest, CEO of Campaign

Research Inc.

METHODOLOGY

This poll was conducted between February 3 and February 6, 2017, among a randomly selected

sample of 1,457 Canadian voters. The poll was conducted by Interactive Voice Response (IVR)

and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, 19 times out of 20.